AVI — Attention Velocity Index
What It Measures
AVI measures the acceleration of attention — not how much attention a channel has, but how fast that attention is growing and whether that growth rate is itself increasing.
This distinction matters. A channel with 50,000 followers growing at 0.1% per week is structurally different from a channel with 10,000 followers growing at 5% per week and accelerating. The second is a structural event in progress. The first is plateauing.
Velocity often precedes volatility. Accelerating attention is one of the earliest measurable precursors to breakout events.
Formula
AVI = ΔMentions_t × SustainabilityFactorWhere:
| Variable | Definition |
|---|---|
ΔMentions_t | Change in normalized mention/attention volume between time windows t and t-1 |
SustainabilityFactor | Ratio of sustained attention to spike-only attention. Penalizes single-window spikes. |
The sustainability factor is computed as:
SustainabilityFactor = MedianAttention_7d / MaxAttention_7dA SustainabilityFactor near 1.0 means attention is consistently high. A factor near 0 means attention was spiked once and collapsed — which is a fragility signal, not a velocity signal.
Interpretation
| AVI Level | Signal Interpretation |
|---|---|
| High + accelerating | Strong structural momentum. Attention is building, not manufactured. |
| High + decelerating | Peak may be approaching. Useful window is narrowing. |
| Moderate + stable | Consistent presence. Not breaking out, not collapsing. |
| Low + accelerating | Early-stage signal. Could be early discovery or early pump. Cross-reference SIS. |
| Negative | Attention is actively declining. Decay in progress. |
When AVI Is High
High AVI indicates that the rate of attention growth is increasing. This can mean:
- Organic discovery: A new audience is finding the community
- Narrative pickup: Creators are referencing the project across channels
- Pre-TGE coordination: Anticipatory attention building ahead of a launch event
High AVI alone is not sufficient signal. It must be cross-referenced with SIS (to confirm the attention is organic) and TRI (to rule out bot-driven spikes).
When AVI Is Low
Low or negative AVI indicates:
- Community plateauing after an initial growth phase
- Post-TGE decay: attention peaked at launch and is bleeding off
- Narrative fatigue: the story has been told and is not compounding
A high AVI driven by a single symmetrical join spike is a fragility signal, not a momentum signal. Always check SustainabilityFactor. If it is below 0.3, the AVI reading is unreliable.
Role in REP
AVI contributes positively to REP when sustained and high. Unsustained spikes contribute negligibly due to the sustainability penalty. AVI is one of the two most weighted inputs in the REP composite.