BPM — Breakout Probability Model
What It Measures
BPM estimates the probability that a Telegram community is structurally ready for a breakout event — a rapid expansion in attention, audience reach, or on-chain activity driven by organic structural conditions rather than artificial pump mechanics.
Output range: [0, 1]
A BPM of 0.9 means the structural conditions historically associated with breakout events are strongly present. It does not mean a breakout will occur — only that the structure supports it.
Formula
BP = 1 / (1 + e^(-(w₁·AVI + w₂·SIS + w₃·NSM)))This is a logistic (sigmoid) function applied to a weighted linear combination of the three primary input model scores.
Variables
| Variable | Definition |
|---|---|
AVI | Normalized Attention Velocity Index score |
SIS | Normalized Structural Integrity Score |
NSM | Normalized Narrative Strength Model score |
w₁, w₂, w₃ | Learned weights from historical breakout analysis |
BP | Breakout Probability ∈ [0, 1] |
The logistic function maps the weighted input to a probability value. High AVI + high SIS + high NSM produce a probability approaching 1.0. Low scores on any dimension pull the probability toward 0.5 and below.
Interpretation
| BPM Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| > 0.75 | High structural readiness. Conditions strongly support breakout potential. |
| 0.50–0.75 | Moderate readiness. Some structural support, but incomplete. |
| 0.25–0.50 | Low readiness. Missing critical structural components. |
| < 0.25 | Very low readiness. Structural conditions actively unfavorable. |
BPM > 0.75 does not guarantee a price breakout, an audience breakout, or any specific event. It signals that the structural conditions are present. External factors (market conditions, macro, team execution) are not modeled.
What Drives BPM High
BPM is a function of AVI, SIS, and NSM. The inputs that drive it high:
- Accelerating, sustained attention (high AVI with strong sustainability factor)
- Authentic community structure (SIS > 70)
- Compounding, creator-dense narrative (NSM with high creator density)
All three must be present simultaneously for BPM to approach 0.75+. A high AVI with low SIS produces a moderate BPM at best, because bot-driven acceleration does not constitute structural readiness.
What BPM Is Not
- Not a price prediction model
- Not a market timing signal
- Not a recommendation to buy or participate in any allocation
BPM is a structural readiness indicator. It describes the Telegram substrate, not the token market.
Role in REP
BPM contributes positively to REP as a forward-looking structural signal. It is weighted less than AVI and SIS, reflecting the fact that it is a derived model (computed from the other models’ inputs) rather than a primary observable.