TRI — Telegram Risk Index
What It Measures
TRI is a composite collapse risk indicator. It aggregates three distinct risk dimensions into a single score that represents the probability that a Telegram community’s apparent strength is structurally fragile and likely to collapse.
Unlike the other four models (which measure positive structural signals), TRI is an inverse input to REP — higher TRI reduces REP.
Output range: [0, 100]
Formula
TRI = BotRisk + DecayVelocity + StructuralFragmentationEach component is normalized to a sub-range that sums to 100 when all risk factors are maximally present.
Component Definitions
| Component | Definition | Weight |
|---|---|---|
BotRisk | Probability that a meaningful fraction of channel activity is bot-generated, based on join patterns, engagement timing, and account behavioral signatures | ~40% |
DecayVelocity | Rate at which engagement, views, or member count is declining relative to its recent peak | ~35% |
StructuralFragmentation | Degree to which the community is isolated — low creator overlap, no narrative cross-pollination, single-source dependency | ~25% |
Interpretation
| TRI Range | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| 0–30 | Low risk. Community demonstrates structural resilience. |
| 30–55 | Moderate risk. Some fragility indicators present. Monitor over time. |
| 55–70 | High risk. Multiple risk dimensions active simultaneously. |
| > 70 | Critical risk. Structural collapse conditions are strongly present. |
TRI > 70 is a structural red flag. Communities with TRI above this threshold have historically shown high correlation with rapid post-TGE collapse, member exodus, and narrative decay within 30–60 days.
Bot Risk Component
Bot risk is derived from behavioral signatures that differ systematically from human Telegram activity:
- Symmetrical join patterns (human growth is asymmetric by nature)
- Engagement timing clustering (bots engage in bursts at fixed intervals)
- Account age and activity profile correlation with known bot clusters
- Reaction-to-view ratios that exceed plausible human behavior
Decay Velocity Component
Decay velocity measures whether the community is losing structural momentum:
- Member count delta over rolling 7-day and 30-day windows
- View rate per message declining versus historical channel baseline
- Reply frequency declining relative to post frequency
- Forward rate dropping (narrative losing propagation)
High decay velocity post-TGE is the most common indicator of structurally hollow communities.
Structural Fragmentation Component
Fragmentation measures community isolation:
- No creator overlap: the channel is not referenced by any external creator
- No narrative cross-pollination: no shared content with adjacent communities
- Single-source dependency: all engagement originates from admin posts, not community members
- Creator absence: the primary channel owner is the only active voice
Highly fragmented communities are entirely dependent on their admin’s continued promotional energy. When that energy stops, the community collapses because there is no independent structural support.
Role in REP
TRI acts as a penalty in the REP formula. A channel with high TRI has its REP suppressed proportionally. A very high TRI (> 70) can significantly reduce REP even when other model scores are strong — because structural risk undermines the credibility of positive signals.
TRI is not static. Communities that reduce their bot risk and increase creator overlap over time will see TRI decrease, and REP recover accordingly.